RESUMO Neste trabalho propomos e analisamos medidas de relaxamento do distanciamento social, e seus impactos no sentido epidemiológico, a partir das simulações de um modelo matemático compartimental do tipo SEIRD (Suscetível-Exposto-Infectado-Recuperado-Morto) generalizado, que implicitamente leva em conta medidas de quarentena, considerando a estimativa da dinâmica de espalhamento da doença do coronavírus (COVID-19) sob perturbações/incertezas. O objetivo principal é avaliar os efeitos nas projeções da epidemia da COVID-19 no Brasil e, em particular, no estado do Rio de Janeiro. Diferentes estratégias de relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social são investigadas para determinar quais delas são viáveis e menos perigosas para a população. Os resultados destacam a necessidade de manter políticas de distanciamento social para controlar a propagação da doença. Especificamente, o cenário de relaxamento abrupto do distanciamento social, implementado após a ocorrência do pico de casos diagnosticados positivamente, pode prolongar a epidemia, com um aumento significativo do número previsto de casos confirmados e de mortes. Um cenário ainda pior pode ocorrer se a política de relaxamento do distanciamento social é implementada antes da evidência do controle epidêmico, indicando a importância da escolha adequada de quando parar e começar a relaxar as medidas de distanciamento social. A abordagem empregada aqui, e as análises subsequentes aplicadas no Brasil e Rio de Janeiro, pode ser usada para outros locais.

ABSTRACT In this work, we propose and analyze social distancing relaxation measures and their epidemiological impacts through simulations of a compartmental mathematical model. Our generalized SEIRD model implicitly takes into account social distancing measures, considering the estimate of the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 under disturbances/uncertainties. The main objective is to assess the effects on the projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and, in particular, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Different relaxation strategies of social distancing measures are investigated to determine which ones are viable and less dangerous for the population. The results highlight the need to maintain social distancing policies to control the spread of the disease. Specifically, the scenario considered as abrupt relaxation measures, implemented after the peak of positively diagnosed cases has occurred, can prolong the epidemic, with a significant increase in the expected number of confirmed and death cases. An even worse scenario can occur if the relaxation policy is implemented prior to the evidence of epidemiological control, indicating the importance of the proper choice of when to stop and start to relax social distancing measures. The approach employed here, and the subsequent analyzes applied to Brazil and Rio de Janeiro, can be used for other locations.

Resumo Comunidades da Amazônia são amplamente dependentes dos rios, com o consumo local de alimentos baseado em várias espécies de peixes. A UJER (Reserva Extrativista do Alto Juruá - Reserva Extrativista do Alto Juruá) está localizada no estado do Acre, na fronteira com o Peru e com várias áreas indígenas. Aqui resumimos os dados que coletamos em 1993/1994 da população que vive às margens dos rios Juruá, Tejo, Bagé, Igarapé São João e Breu sobre cultivo, criação de animais e uso de recursos de caça e peixes. Foram entrevistados 133 indivíduos (94 nos rios Juruá e Tejo, 16 em Bagé, 16 em Igarapé São João e 7 no rio Breu). Nossos resultados incluem uma descrição abrangente dos meios de subsistência locais, incluindo as espécies de peixes mais importantes para a subsistência local, considerando gênero e sazonalidade, bem como as principais espécies de criação, de caça e os itens cultivados na agricultura local., Quando foi possível obter informações da literatura, comparamos as mudanças nos meios de subsistência ao longo do tempo na mesma região e também com os padrões recentes observados no Baixo e no Médio Rio Juruá. Esperamos fornecer informações úteis para o entendimento das mudanças temporais nos meios de subsistência locais, o que pode ser útil ao manejo ecológico da região.

Abstract Amazonian livelihoods are largely dependent on rivers, with local protein consumption mainly relying on several species of fish. The UJER (Upper Juruá Extractive Reserve - Reserva Extrativista do Alto Juruá) is located in the state of Acre, bordering Peru and several indigenous areas. Here we summarize the data we collected in 1993/1994 on the population living along the banks of the Juruá, Tejo, Bagé, Igarapé São João and Breu rivers on crop cultivation, animal husbandry, and use of game and fish resources. We interviewed 133 individuals (94 on the Juruá and Tejo, 16 on Bagé, 16 on Igarapé São João and 7 on Breu rivers). Our results include a comprehensive description on local livelihoods, including the most important fish species for local subsistence considering gender and seasonality, the main husbandry and game species, and the items cultivated on the local agriculture. Whenever more recent information was available in the literature, we compared changes in livelihoods over time in the same region and also with the recent patterns observed in the Lower and in the Middle Juruá River. We hope to provide useful information to understand temporal changes in local livelihoods, which can help adapt and shape the ecological management in the region.

ABSTRACT Mathematical and computational modeling have been increasingly applied in many areas of cancer research, aiming to improve the understanding of tumorigenic mechanisms and to suggest more effective therapy protocols. The mathematical description of the tumor growth dynamics is often made using the exponential, logistic, and Gompertz models. However, recent literature has suggested that the Allee effect may play an important role in the early stages of tumor dynamics, including cancer relapse and metastasis. For a model to provide reliable predictions, it is necessary to have a rigorous evaluation of the uncertainty inherent in the modeling process. In this work, our main objective is to show how a model framework that integrates sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and model selection techniques can improve and systematically characterize model and data uncertainties. We investigate five distinct models with different complexities, which encompass the exponential, logistic, Gompertz, and weak and strong Allee effect dynamics. Using tumor growth data published in the literature, we perform a global sensitivity analysis, apply a Bayesian framework for parameter inference, evaluate the associated sensitivity matrices, and use different information criteria for model selection (First- and Second-Order Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criterion). We show that such a wider methodology allows having a more detailed picture of each model assumption and uncertainty, calibration reliability, ultimately improving tumor mathematical description. The used in vivo data suggested the existence of both a competitive effect among tumor cells and a weak Allee effect in the growth dynamics. The proposed model framework highlights the need for more detailed experimental studies on the influence of the Allee effect on the analyzed cancer scenario.

Cucurbatacins are known to produce cytotoxic and anticancer activities. Two novel norcucurbitacin glucosides (Wvl and Wv2) have recently been isolated from a purified fraction obtained from the rhizome of Wilbrandia verticillata. The present study evaluates the cytotoxic and anti-tumour activities of the norcucurbitacins. We have found a regular cytotoxicity in KB cells (Cy50 = 12µg/ml) as well as a significant inhibition in the Walker 256 carcinosarcoma growth (approximately 75%).